In dieser Folge von „Krisen von morgen“ spricht Sarah Bressan mit our very own Florence und Anja Palm, Early Warning und Conflict Prevention Policy Officer im Europäischen Auswärtigen Dienst. Die Expertinnen erzählen, wie die EU sich gegen Krisen wappnet, wieso die Politik besser darin werden muss, in die Zukunft zu schauen, welche Ressourcen es dafür braucht und wie Frühwarnung politische Entscheidungsprozesse wirklich beeinflussen kann.
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This transatlantic what if might be penned in German but it's a version of 2028 worth exploring
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Author of prophetic science fiction novels Octavia Butler teaches us the capacity we have to understand the future, as well as our limitations. A perspective not to be missed
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Clues, red herrings, irrefutable proof - just a few things foresighting and murder investigations have in common. This is your guide on how to investigate neatly broken down in 12 simple rules of investigation - courtesy of futurate, your investigative mentor for all future related mysteries
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Continuing our journey to de-mystify foresight, here's your unofficial guide to some persistent narratives in need of an update - not unlike the stories collected by the Brothers Grimm
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In a world of ordinary mortals ... be a futurist! With great power comes great responsibility and we're here to easen your burden and yes, you are much stronger than you think you are. Here's the cheat sheet to foresight superhero status - a neat and not too serious primer to get you ready for what lies ahead.
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We're a few months into 2022 and it's about time that we look at predictions made before the start of 2022. And yes, it was a pretty rocky start so far. We know a few things about the year ahead: it will have 49 elections, one World Cup and Olympic Games. But there is also a lot that we don’t know. What will 2022 bring?
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It's a classic for a reason. Schwartz describes the (then) new techniques, originally developed within Royal/Dutch Shell that were tested in practice probably before you were even born. Based on many of his firsthand scenario exercises with some of the world's leading institutions and companies, including the White House, EPA, BellSouth, PG&E, and the International Stock Exchange this is definitely where you want to start your foresight journey..
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How realistic am I? How optimistic should I be and how does it vary? We also recommend the book but if you'e short on time this paper by Tali Sharot is a great starting point to understand why you overestimate certain things (like the time you have left to finish a task) but also underestimate other things (like your country's economic prospects).
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Why not listen to quick, short and definitely painless soundbites and what if scenarios you might not have considered yet? Episodes like "no more zoos, what now?" or "no more gas, what now?" might just help you improve your 180° outlook
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It's just one example of a great many seasons and episodes and if you care for counterfactual thinking (in French), this is your sauce. Enjoy!
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In German Florence details here how eternal peace is per se a fallacitiy and how violence became unpredictably predictable
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It's in French. It's about War strategy and Star Wars. High time to work on your French and have a listen as le Collimateur (and look at their more current episodes as well!) takes the 9th Star Wars feature as starting point to talk everything war-related. A l'occasion de la sortie de l'épisode IX de Star Wars, le Collimateur se saisit de la saga et de l'univers qu'elle crée, pour développer une analyse tactique et stratégique de la guerre dans Star Wars.
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It's hard to pick a favorite but when it comes to podcast recommendations, there's few topics as useful and handy to learn more about as trends.
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We highly recommend even for non-French speakers because this project by the French Armed Forces is too good to miss as sci-fi authors support the French military by anticipating and developing threat scenarios: C'est une alliance atypique que celle de la littérature et de l'armée et pourtant c'est le nouveau projet de l'armée française, la Red Team. Son objectif : utiliser l'esprit créatif des auteurs de science-fiction pour imaginer les menaces du futur et, peut-être, mieux les anticiper.
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Erschienen in Internationale Politik, November/Dezember 2021. Vorausschau erfordert die Anwendung eines Methodenmix. Je bewusster man sich eigener Annahmen und Beschränkungen ist, desto besser lässt sich nach vorn denken. Niemand kann alles vorhersehen und Rückschau ist immer leicht. Nur was kann Foresight wirklich?
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Sometimes it's good to remind yourself of progress made when looking back. So to be playful and enjoy have a look at this then radical game created by no other than Douglas Adams who was actually spot one with a lot of predictions like ebooks... "There was a time when computer games didn't have graphics. Or at least they couldn't have graphics and sound at the same time. They certainly couldn't have graphics, sound and enough content to keep even a human being amused for more than a few minutes. So they had text..." This is the refurbished 30 year anniversary edition and yes, you have to try it once at least, if we may say so.
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As we are entering a new era of warfare, the sheer magnitude of changes is difficult to comprehend. If you want a shortcut, we highly recommend taking the 45 or so minutes to watch this in depth analysis and outlook.
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From cliodynamics to the looming population conundrum - if you want to brush up on your knowledge of all things tech and innovation, this podcast is definitely worth a listen.
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In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from the world's elite forecasters. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life.
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Worst case covered, what about the rest? This Chaillot Paper focuses on untested and unverified assumptions about the future, and how these impact on foresight. Such assumptions are often formulated in the absence of concrete evidence to support them and, rather like blind spots, can distort our perceptions and lead policymakers to commit strategic blunders.
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Today we welcome Jane McGonigal. She is a world-renowned game designer who challenges players to tackle real-world problems such as poverty, depression, and climate change through collaboration. Jane is also a future forecaster, serving as the current Director of Games Research & Development at the Institute for the Future. Her games and forecasting work have been featured in The New York Times, Wired, The Economist, CNN, NPR and more. As a two-time New York Times bestselling author, she has recently published her third book called Imaginable.
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It's on War and Ukraine and Time. You might not speak German (what's GoogleTranslate for if not this?) but even though we at Futurate might be just slightly biased, we really would recommend having a look at this article by Florence. Was postheroische Gesellschaften erst noch lernen müssen: Das schnelle Ende eines Krieges ist noch nicht notwendigerweise auch ein gutes Ende.
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In this special edition of our What if podcast, the EU’s first-ever commissioner for strategic foresight Maroš Šefčovič explains to Florence Gaub what foresight is, how it can help policy-making, and what he thinks generally about the future.
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Would you like to know what’s in our future? What’s going to happen to humanity tomorrow, next year, or even a millennium from now? Well, you’re not alone. Everyone from governments to military to industry leaders do as well, and they all employ people - called ‘futurists’ - who attempt to forecast the future. Roey Tzezana explains some of the ways that futurists venture to do so. Lesson by Roey Tzezana, animation by TED-Ed. View full lesson: https://ed.ted.com/lessons/how-science-fiction-can-help-predict-the-future-roey-tzezana
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We're often told groups make us less smart, but recent discoveries in cognitive science contradict this conventional wisdom. Cognitive scientist Emile Servan-Schreiber takes you through the science of collective intelligence, from Galton's 1906 discovery of the wisdom of crowds to the last 20 years of research. Collective intelligence has a recipe, and its 3 ingredients all matter for smarter groups : - a diversity of opinions, - a healthy dose of independence so diversity can flourish, - an aggregation method to extract consensus (see Scott Page on diversity, and James Surowiecki for a more general overview of the wisdom of crowds) The 3 laws of collective wisdom : 1) The error of the average (the crowd's error) is smaller than the average error (that of an individual chosen at random) 2) The larger the crowd, the wiser its judgment 3) Error exhibits diminishing returns: the greatest gain in accuracy comes at the start, meaning small groups can still be wise.
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Looking at past predictions can be an amusing endeavour: in 1900, an American engineer predicted that by the year 2000 the letters C, X and Q would have become obsolete (because unnecessary); that mosquitoes, flies and all wild animals would have disappeared; and that gymnastics would be mandatory for all.1 50 years later, the New York Times science editor was sure that by 2000 humans would eat sweets made from sawdust and wood pulp, and that chemical factories would convert discarded paper table linen and rayon underwear into candy.2 In 1966, Time magazine was certain that at the turn of the millennium, hu
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The idea for this Strategic Foresight Primer was born out of necessity. The European Political Strategy Centre has a mandate to engage in anticipatory governance and identify potential future challenges and opportunities for the European Union. Yet, we soon realised that there was no readily accessible and 'easyto-use' guide on strategic foresight — a ‘foresight for dummies’ — explaining the nuts and bolts of the process. What is strategic foresight and what is it not? When and how to use it? What are the advantages and limitations of the different methodologies?
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The potato seemed strange and unappetizing when it first arrived in Europe. But it grew into a wonder food that helped solve the continent’s hunger problems. Can its journey tell us what to expect from current efforts to replace animal meat with societally healthier meat alternatives made from plants, insects, or cells grown in petri dishes?
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Using experimental technology to pull gigatons of carbon out of the air and bury it deep beneath the Earth sounds like a bad sci-fi plot point. If things don’t change soon, it also might be one of our only options. Guest: Clive Thompson, journalist and author of Coders: The Making of a New Tribe and the Remaking of the World. Host: Lizzie O’Leary
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You know you want to learn more, perhaps start your foresight journey or expand your already existing knowledge but well, there’s a lot of material to go through and it’s not always easy to decipher how to be most efficient about it. No need to despair, we got you covered. Take this quiz to find reading recommendations tailored to your specific interest - it's like your personalized reading list (though not just books), just 7 clicks away.
